The Inequitable Future: Poorest Nations to Suffer Most as Global 'Superhot' Days Double by 2100
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CLIMATE JUSTICE – A new climate analysis reveals a harsh reality: by the end of the century, the world is expected to gain an average of 57 additional "superhot" days annually—a near doubling of current figures—with the disproportionate burden falling on the poorest, lowest-emitting nations.
The report, which tracks the global rise of extreme heat since the 2015 Paris Agreement, defines a "superhot day" as a day hotter than 90% of that location's historical temperature range. This dramatic increase, equivalent to almost two extra months of dangerous heat each year, exposes a fundamental global inequality embedded in the climate crisis.
The Wedge Between 'Have' and 'Have-Not'
The study projects that while the world's largest carbon emitters—including the United States, China, and India—will see an increase, they will experience far fewer additional superhot days than small, developing countries.
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The ten most affected nations, largely small island states and ocean-dependent economies like Panama, the Solomon Islands, and Samoa, collectively produce only about 1% of the world's heat-trapping gases.
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Despite their minimal contribution to the problem, these countries face the most severe consequences, with some, like Panama, projected to suffer up to 149 extra superhot days annually.
Experts warn that this "heat inequality" will drive geopolitical instability and further widen the economic gap between rich and poor nations, as extreme heat places devastating strain on public health, labor productivity, and agriculture in regions least equipped to adapt.
Avoided Catastrophe, Remaining Crisis
The research does offer a glimmer of hope, noting that the Paris Agreement has already prevented a worse outcome. Before the accord, the world was on track for 4°C (7.2°F) of warming by 2100, which would have resulted in 114 additional superhot days—double the current projection of 57.
However, the current path, which still leads to an estimated 2.6°C (4.7°F) of warming, is far from safe. The added heat stress is expected to lead to millions of heat-related illnesses and deaths globally, underscoring the critical need for wealthier nations to not only meet but dramatically exceed their current emissions reduction pledges and significantly increase financial aid for vulnerable countries to adapt.
